Publications:
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Curtice, Travis B. “Co-ethnic Bias and Policing in an Electoral Authoritarian Regime: Experimental Evidence from Uganda” (OnlineFirst, Journal of Peace Research).
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Blair, Robert A., Travis Curtice, David Dow and Guy Grossman. 2022. “Public trust, policing, and the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from an electoral authoritarian regime.” Social Science Medicine 305:115045.
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Curtice, Travis B. “How Repression Affects Public Perceptions of Police: Evidence from Uganda.“Journal of Conflict Resolution, Nov. 2021, Vol. 65(10) 1680–1708.
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“Opportunistic Repression: Patterns of civilian targeting by the state in response to COVID-19” with Don Grasse, Melissa Pavlik, and Hilary Matfess. Oct. 2021, Vol. 46(2) 130-165.
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Curtice, Travis B. “Rebels and the Regime: The Politics of Civilian Victimization.” Journal of Global Security Studies, June 2021, Vol. 6(2) ogaa025.
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Curtice, Travis B., and Brandon Behlendorf. “Street-Level Repression: Protest, Policing, and Dissent in Uganda.” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Jan. 2021, Vol. 65(1) pp. 166–194.
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Curtice, Travis B., and Daniel Arnon. “Deterring threats and settling scores: How coups influence respect for physical integrity rights.” Conflict Management and Peace Science, 2020, Vol. 37(6) 655-673.
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Curtice, Travis. “The Autocrat’s Dilemma: The Politics of Ethnic Policing.” CP: Newsletter of the Comparative Politics Organized Section of the American Political Science Association, 28(1): 24–29.
Under Review:
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“The Limits of Linkage: The Political Economy of Trade Linkage” with Eric Reinhardt.
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“Democratic Erosion, Partisanship, and Election Observers: Evidence from a Survey Experiment” with Charles Crabtree.
Working Papers/Works in Progress:
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“Who Makes the State? National Ownership and International Statebuilding: Evidence from an Electoral Authoritarian Regime” with Susanna Campbell and Yolande Bouka.
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“Coethnic Bias and Citizen-Police Interaction in Fragile and Violent Contexts” with Mara Revkin, Hilary Matfess, and Jason Lyall.
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“Securing the Ballot or the Voter: The Politics of Policing Election Violence.”
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“Neighborhood Watches and Reporting Crime in Uganda: Evidence from a List and Endorsement Experiment” EGAP ID: 20180605AC.
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“Order and Violence: the Authoritarian Legacy of the Russian Imperial Police” with Roya Talibova)
Selected Media Publications:
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“Soldiers and police are on the streets as Ugandans prepare to vote,” Washington Post (January 2021).
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“Democracy in Crisis: Do Americans Support Deploying Election Monitors?” (with Charles Crabtree) Political Violence at a Glance (November 2020).
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“Autocratic governments are using coronavirus as pretext to clamp down on opponents,” (with Donald Grasse, Melissa Pavlik, and Hilary Matfess) Washington Post (July 2020).
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“The Political Backlash of Repressive Policing,” Political Violence at a Glance (June 2020)
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“Trump wants to pull Cameroon’s preferential trade status. Here’s what you need to know,” Washington Post (November 2019).
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“Ugandan police are attacking protesters. Here’s how that backfires” (with Brandon Behlendorf) Washington Post (January 2019).
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“Do coups improve human rights in countries like Gabon?” (with Daniel Arnon) Democracy in Africa (January 2019).
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“The Curse of Doing Nothing for Aleppo” (with Tobias Winright) Sojourners (December 2016).
Book Project (In preparation):
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“The Repression Dilemma: The Politics of Policing in Multi-ethnic Societies” (See book proposal here)
Why do some people cooperate with police in the provision of law and order in autocracies while others are not even willing to report crimes to police? Drawing on a principal-agent framework, I theorize autocrats face a tradeoff between policing effectiveness and repressive compliance. This tradeoff has implications for how citizens interact with police. By developing and testing the theory in Uganda, a multiethnic autocracy, I argue regimes partially solve their security tradeoff by employing ethnicity as a social radar, strategically staffing police officers. Although using outsiders to police communities increases repressive compliance, it exacerbates coethnic bias decreasing citizens’ willingness to cooperate with police in the provision of law and order. Consequently, actions autocrats take to ensure police are willing to comply with orders to repress decrease citizens’ cooperation in the provision of law and order and weaken one of the defining features of the state. To test the observable implications of the theory, I use a multi-method approach. This approach includes a series of preregistered survey experiments (a nationally representative list experiment, conjoint design experiment in Gulu district, and a nationally representative endorsement experiment); quantitative analyses of crime and political violence data at the district level; and elite interviews. The results have implications for how we think about state (dis)order, conflict, human rights, and security sector reform.
Travis B. Curtice 